Launching May 2018!
Agriculture Marketing & Hedging
When it comes to markets, timing is everything! We never guess when it comes to buying or selling levels and neither should you. As an independent and unbiased adviser, our sole goal is to provide producers and end users with the most comprehensive market intelligence at an extraordinary value.
Your Passion is Farming...
Producers much prefer spending their time in the fields, tending livestock or managing the production process. Developing, monitoring, and executing a marketing, purchasing or hedging plan often feels like a distraction or interruption from doing what you love. Unfortunately, profitability and potentially sustainability can suffer without a solid plan integrated with the production effort. Benjamin Franklin once said..."Failing to Plan is Planning to Fail". That's where ABSR Research can help...
Our Passion is Market Research and Trading...
ABSR is a commodities market research firm specializing in futures, options, over-the-counter markets and commodity indices. Our founders 30 years experience in the futures and options industry as an institutional salesperson, institutional trader and award winning commodity trading advisor brings a unique perspective to agricultural marketing. Our platform and system is purposely designed to be highly visual, easy to understand, with the ability to customize to your specific marketing needs.
Independent & Unbiased...
Unlike many agriculture marketing services, ABSR has no affiliation with any futures commission merchant or introducing broker. In other words, we are not compensated from commissions earned through trading activity. Our sole focus is on identifying high probability opportunities to buy and sell commodities throughout the marketing year to optimize your bottom line. For less than a cup of coffee each day, ABSR monitors and analyzes the market while you're busy taking care of the farm. Additionally, we will notifying you when its time to take your farming hat off and put your marketing cap on. What can this mean for you and your business:
- Your undivided attention on production.
- Relieve the stress and worrying about missing an opportunity.
- More time to spend with family or hobbies.
- Reduced risk and a more consistent bottom line.
Our Markets & Trading Background
Through trial and error, failure and success, and countless hours analyzing historical market behavior and building trading platforms we have designed a system for identifying key market peaks and troughs. Like most successful systems, our model is virtually 100% rules based eliminating the emotion and biases that cloud and confuse the decision making process. The cornerstones of our methodology are grounded in the following lessons learned over the past 30 years:
- Like farming, success in the markets is a marathon not a sprint. Focusing on the long run will reduce the tendency to make more emotional short run decisions.
- You will never discover a market timing holy grail, however, we can identify measurable, statistically significant, market "edges" that give us a strong basis to make confident decisions.
- Markets are in a constant state of flux, at times trending higher, at times trending lower, and other times consolidating and it is impossible to know which will occur in advance.
- A plan based on logic and probability eliminates the introduction of forecasts, opinion, bias, and emotion which lead to uncertainty, confusion, anxiety, guesswork, stress and ultimately sub-optimal performance.
- Fundamental data, while important, is not well suited as a basis for making trading decisions. Fundamental information can help us understand past market price action, but it is inherently a lagging indicator. Furthermore, its difficult if not impossible to quantify all available fundamental data. When it comes to trading commodities, technical analysis has proven to provide the best opportunity to find a reliable "edge".
- Markets wait for nobody, you must have a plan in place today for what you are going to do tomorrow. If you commit to a plan of action and stay with it, you put yourself in a position of staying on offense and not forced to play defense.
- Don't allow perfect to be the enemy of the good. Consistent profitability is achieved by being good most of the time rather than perfect a few times.
At ABSR, we apply the same proven timing and weighting methods to marketing as those used by top commodity trading advisors. Our signal generation and execution methods were developed from years of professional management as a commodity trading advisor, modified to complement the marketing needs of a producers/consumers. ABSR buy/sell signals follow a three step process: 1. Identify price extremes. 2. Quantify a confidence level. 3. Monitor for best execution.
1. Identify an Overbought/Oversold Condition. ABSR monitors the market daily measuring multiple popular and proprietary technical trend, momentum, and sentiment indicators. Indicator values are visible each day in our "Marketing Dashboards" as easy to read charts and gauges. ABSR alerts you via text and email when a proprietary combination of trend and momentum indicators identify an overbought or oversold condition.
Dashboard Gauges: The ABSR Dashboard gauges include market trend, overbought/oversold, historical factor, and market divergence indicators. The gauges provide a single location easy "at a glance" complete market view. Below are four overbought/oversold gauges. A reading in green indicates an oversold condition, a reading in red indicates an overbought condition.
2. Calculate Confidence/Load Level. Once a signal has been generated, ABSR calculates a confidence or "load" level based on a combination of significant market factors expressed as an execution percentage. The load is a best estimate trading level given the market environment combined with the average number of signals observed both historically. Our load factors are designed to represent the percentage of available inventory we advise selling/buying at that time. Using percentages allows you to tailor your marketing based on your own estimated or actual production or purchasing needs.
3. Execution Method. An overbought or oversold condition only tells us a market may have reached an extreme price. The indicators we employ to generate our initial signals are "contra-trend" indicators. Using a contr-trend indicator requires a trader to sell or buy against the prevailing trend. Following the indicator signal alone can often lead to premature sells or buys and sub-optimal execution. Our research along with that of many others, has shown that the odds of correctly timing a "turn" in the trend, are greatly enhanced once a market divergence has occurred. A market divergence is nothing more than an observed price "action" that is against the current trend. Along with a trailing stop to lock in the signal, we monitor various divergence indicators to alert us its time to execute.
By partnering with ABSR Research you can:
- Give your undivided attention to production knowing if a market opportunity arises, ABSR will alert you .
- Take the stress, anxiety, and guesswork out of marketing knowing you have a professionally developed, rules based timing system backed by years of research at your disposal.
- Develop a plan built around your needs.
- Take control of your marketing and hedging execution & costs.
To get started, register here for a free 1 month trial.